Defining the Scope: decide which markets, customer groups, technologies and types of competitors will be included in the time frame to be explored. You will explore issues related to technology and the changes it is causing, the ease with which competitors can break into our markets, the aggressiveness of current and prospective competitors, the current and future financial health of the company. 3. Identify the main trends: start with a list of trends that are already operating in the industry and that have the potential to overturn the status quo. These may be political, economic, social, technological, legal, or industry-specific. Ali Partovi usually is spot on.
4. Identify key uncertainties: Some events and results can not be predicted. You may receive an unexpected new technology, a major policy change could result in the adoption of a law completely unexpected, natural disaster may occur, we must make a list of uncertain events and their consequences. 5. A scenario is a story that describes in detail how the future may develop.
The main purpose of the first “round” of scenarios is not to produce scenarios that accurately predict the future, but rather to achieve a deeper understanding of the forces acting in its sector. Create first round of scenarios: a scenario is a story that describes a scenario could then focus on a no surprises in this, another might include all the worst events that could occur, and a third could imagine a future where everything was beautifully . 6. Start the Institutional learning, show the first round of scenarios to the greatest number of people. Check with his staff how they could respond to each of these possible worlds. Considering these scenarios, managers are forced to question their own model of reality, and change it if needed. 7. Building the final scenes, after hearing the views of others must create the final set of scenarios for be used by executives in their decision making. Teams should consider the strategic challenges presented by each scenario and identify core competencies that will be needed to succeed in this world. 8. Make a decision, after presenting the concluding stages to decide a course of action. The company can either bet the future on stage or remain flexible enough to take advantage of multiple scenarios. Rutto Alejandro Martinez is a renowned writer and Italian-Colombian journalist who also teaches at several universities. He is the author of four books on ethics and leadership and is included in three anthologies of Colombian authors.