January Market

On the day of Friday, the dollar had closed in slates to $3.47 on the tip selling retailer. The bet that makes the market, is the continuity of the depreciation of the Argentine peso. In this sense, Rofex market futures are operated to $3.50 by year’s end and $3.55 for late January. It is important to note that in this market he intervenes with its operative the BCRA, implying that without its intervention, the price of the U.S. currency futures might be higher than that observed. In fact, in New York, for NDF contracts, operations embodied in the day on Friday was agreed to $3.85 to 30 days. This movement to the rise of the dollar in recent weeks, when it made only a couple of months, the BCRA strove to twist down to the type of change, creates some uncertainty about what is happening in the Argentine economy. And what is happening there is a not too complex explanation and that is linked to the change of both domestic and international economic scenario.

The sharp fall in the prices of agricultural commodities (soya price spent in a short time of a) maximum level of USD 600 ton to the current 300 USD), has represented a serious blow to the public accounts and also to the Argentine countryside. Both the public sector and the Argentine countryside are now in a worse situation than in full conflict between the two even in your scenario more negative for both (mobile retentions for the field, and fixed deductions in the case of the Government).